Dynamics of Air Transportation System Transition

Transkript

1 Dynamics of Air Transportation Transition Aleksandra Mozdzanowska, and R. John Hansman

2 Need for Transition Existing US ATM system is not sufficient to meet future demands Need for major transformation has been recognized Reflected in NextGen plans for system change Magnitude of planned changes is unprecedented Ability to achieve system transition is a key future core competency in the air transportation systems

3 Feedback Model of Change Demand Adverse Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Building Public Selected Actions Change Model developed based on 20 case studies (successful and unsuccessful) of past changes in the US Air Transportation, control theoretic approaches, and agenda setting literature

4 Past Changes Have Been Driven by Safety Catalytic Events

5 Opportunities for Safety Driven Change Have Decreased Source: Boeing

6 New Transition Drivers Capacity Environmental Constraints Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz How will the system respond to capacity and environmental transition drivers?

7 Multi- Nature of Makes Transition Difficult Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Solution Refinement Loop Public Change Selected Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context

8 Objectives Driven by Perceived Costs and Benefits stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 Asymmetrical cost and benefits distribution b 1 (t) b 2 (t) Change b 3 (t) Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Costs stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 c 1 (t) c 2 (t) c 3 (t) Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marias & Prof. Annalisa Weigel () Benefits

9 Increasing Airport Infrastructure to Increase Capacity Current FAA OEP airports with ongoing or planned projects Philadelphia Los Angeles Seattle Washington Dulles Chicago O Hare Charlotte Atlanta Dallas-Ft. Worth Fort Lauderdale Portland Las Vegas

10 Asymmetrical Costs and Benefits lead to Disenfranchised s Runway Expansion Example

11 Environmental Review Can Delay Implementation Environmental process provides a mechanism for disenfranchised stakeholders to block implementation Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Delay Loop Public Change Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context

12 Expansion Projects May not be Realized in Time to meet Demand SEA: ~24 years BOS: 37 years ORD: ~10 years PHL LAX: ~10 years STL: 10 years IAD: ~12 years ATL: 15 years Note: Figure adapted from Top 30 Congested Airports in 2005 Pending Expansion Projects Completed Expansion Projects

13 Airspace Redesign Projects are also Facing Environmental Barriers NY Airspace is one of the busiest in the world Planned changes would allow for more efficient use of resources Lawsuits threaten to delay or derail changes

14 Role of Capacity Catalytic Events Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Solution Refinement Loop Public Change Selected Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context

15 Demand Management is the Only Rapid Alternative Demand Management Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Solution Refinement Loop Public Change Selected Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context

16 Objectives also Driven by Timing of Benefits stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 b 1 (t) b 2 (t) Change b 3 (t) Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Costs stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 c 1 (t) c 2 (t) c 3 (t) Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marias & Prof. Annalisa Weigel () Benefits

17 Temporal Distribution of Costs and Benefits Cost and Benefit Levels Costs Benefits Time objectives modeled using net present value (NPV)

18 Delays in Timing of Operational Reduces Benefits Cost and Benefit Levels Costs Time Uncertainty Benefits Time Accelerating delivery of benefits has significant value Concerns about implementation will degrade perceived value of a change Trust and confidence in benefits delivery is critical

19 Many Planned Changes Require Equipage Required Navigation Performance (RNP) Area Navigation Routes (RNAV) Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B)

20 Individual Equipage Decisions Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Solution Refinement Loop Public Change FAA Infrastructure Decisions Equipage Decisions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context Delivery of benefits can be dependent upon the actions of other stakeholders

21 Safety Certification and Approval es Delay Implementation Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Delay Loop Public Change FAA Infrastructure Decisions Equipage Decisions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context

22 Simplified Representation of Safety Review and Approval Steps Courtesy of Roland Weibel Complexity of safety certification and approval process poses a challenge to the approval of new capabilities There is a need to improve the efficiency and speed of these processes

23 Questions Demand Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Safety and Environmental Approval es Building Options Solution Refinement Loop Public Change Selected Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Preferences Objective Formation Values, Context